The Art of Identifying Risk

We all know that we need to be prepared. However, how do we determine what we need to work on? The answer is to take a look at your life and identify the risks or scenarios that you want to be prepared for.  Start by making a list, putting things in order from least to worst.  I call this the “Negative Column.”

Keep your list small, no more than ten situations. Now that you have a list, look at ways to add positives to the negative column. This is similar to something we do in the military called “The Risk Mitigation System.”  Here’s an example, if we have a flat tire, it is a bad day.  To turn it from a bad day to just an inconvenience, we are prepared with things like tools, a spare tire, and training. All of these are positives that help improve your situation. Think of it as a math problem on our risk chart.  A flat tire may have a number like -5. Knowing how to change the tire is a +1.  Having the right tools is another +1.  Having a donut is another +1 or even better, a real tire would be counted as a +2. Now we do the math.  With a donut, our math problem would look like this, -5+1+1+1=-2.  Or with a real tire, -5+1+1+2=-1.

I asked my 15-year-old what the worst situation was that she could think of to be her -10. It was an active killer at home, church, the mall or other public place. Then we talked about how to put positives into this negative column. She is 15 and cannot carry a gun.  She can still train with firearms, so she understands them and can be better prepared if she chooses to carry in the future. At this time, it is not a positive, but all training and knowledge is beneficial. One of her positives she chose is to carry a first aid kit.  She is always looking for new and better items for her kit and training to save a life. This is a +1 or may even count as a +2.

We talked about how having a plan can help. Having a plan and talking it over with the people that you are with is another +1. Next, we talked about being aware of our surroundings. Good Situational Awareness (SA) is always a +1. All of these positives work for her and can be practiced on a regular basis, as opposed to something like having her wear body armor at all times.  It is not fashionable for a 15-year-old girl to wear body armor, nor is it practical or feasible.  So how does the math look? -10 +2+1+1=-6.  Yes, it will still be a bad day, but she has identified ways to improve the situation.

As you are starting out with your own Risk Assessment and creating your Negative Column list, look at realistic ways to add positives to counteract your negative column. Look at training, mindset, and equipment. What will help you take your -10 to a better number? Note that I listed training and mindset above equipment. Too often you see people that have the best gear but are not trained to use it, or even prepared mentally or emotionally to do so. Be honest with yourself and put the work in. You cannot add the newest bell or whistle and think it will make up for hard work and training.

Chris